The political atmosphere in Mumbai has heated up as the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election approaches. As India’s richest civic body, the BMC remains a major political battleground, with parties investing significant resources and leadership capital to gain control.

After a three-year delay, the upcoming BMC polls have drawn intense attention, especially around whether the Mahayuti alliance can retain its dominance or if the Thackeray brothers’ camp can stage a strong comeback.

Mahayuti vs Thackeray Camp: The Main Contest

The core contest is between the Mahayuti alliance—led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction)—and the opposition bloc comprising Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).

Both sides are banking on voter sentiment in Mumbai’s Marathi-speaking population, leadership appeal, and alliance arithmetic to tilt the results in their favour.

C-Voter Survey: Mahayuti Holds an Edge

According to a recent C-Voter survey conducted across Mumbai:

• 53% of respondents believe the Mahayuti alliance is likely to win the BMC election

• 18% feel the ruling alliance may fail to repeat its earlier performance

• The remaining voters were either undecided or unsure

These findings suggest that the Mahayuti currently enjoys a clear perception advantage, though the race is far from settled.

Impact of Thackeray Brothers’ Unity on Marathi Votes

Can Uddhav and Raj Thackeray Consolidate Marathi Support?

The possibility of cooperation between Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray has generated strong political buzz in Maharashtra. On this question:

• 61% of voters believe their coming together could help consolidate Marathi votes

• 14% feel it would not make much difference

• Others remained neutral

Recent meetings between the two leaders have intensified speculation about a broader Marathi voter consolidation strategy.

Is the Thackeray Name Still Powerful?

Despite electoral setbacks in recent years, the Thackeray family brand appears to retain influence:

• 72% of respondents said the Thackeray name still holds strong value in Maharashtra politics

• Only 11% disagreed

Who Is Seen as the True Shiv Sena Heir?

When asked who represents the real successor to the Shiv Sena legacy:

• 41% backed Uddhav Thackeray

• 28% supported Eknath Shinde

• 10% favoured Raj Thackeray

This highlights Uddhav Thackeray’s continued recognition as a key political figure in Mumbai.

Opinion on a Marathi Mayor for Mumbai

The survey also explored cultural and identity-based preferences:

• 62% said Mumbai’s next Mayor should be Marathi

• 21% opposed this view

This sentiment could play a significant role in campaign messaging and candidate selection.

Survey Methodology and Reliability

The C-Voter survey included 1,241 respondents across:

• Different age groups

• Genders

• Castes

• Languages

• Political affiliations

With a 5% margin of error, the findings are considered statistically reliable and reflective of broad voter trends.

Asendia Survey Offers a Contrasting Picture

Another opinion poll conducted by Asendia presents a different scenario. According to this survey:

• The Shiv Sena (UBT)–MNS alliance appears to be in a stronger position

• The BJP and Shinde-led Shiv Sena may face a significant setback

This contrast shows how Mumbai’s electorate remains deeply divided, making the final outcome difficult to predict.

Role of National and State Leadership Faces

Voters were also asked about the influence of senior leaders such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis.

Interestingly, only a small fraction of voters said they would vote based purely on leadership faces:

• 4% of women

• 4% of Muslim voters

• 2% of Marathi-speaking voters

• 4% of other groups

Most voters indicated that local factors and party alignment mattered more than individual leaders.

Muslim Voters: Preferences Remain Unclear

The survey revealed diverse and fragmented choices among Muslim voters:

• 12% prefer parties fielding Muslim candidates

• 2% support candidates best positioned to defeat the BJP

• 10% favour the UBT–MNS alliance

• 11% lean towards the Congress-led coalition

• A significant 64% did not express a clear preference

This uncertainty makes Muslim voter behaviour a key wildcard in the BMC election.

Final Takeaway: A High-Stakes, Open Contest

While the Mahayuti alliance appears ahead in perception according to one survey, conflicting polls suggest the BMC election in Mumbai remains wide open. Factors such as Marathi identity, local leadership, alliance dynamics, and voter turnout will ultimately decide who controls the country’s most powerful municipal corporation.

As campaigning intensifies, Mumbai’s divided mandate ensures that the BMC election will be one of the most closely watched political contests in Maharashtra.